The End of Meritocracy...

Whilst football rejoice at the death of the European Super League, these 'big' clubs will be plotting their next move. The story is far from over.

What have we just witnessed…? In the space of just 3 days we saw the sudden birth and dramatic death of a European Super League promised to segregate the self-proclaimed ‘elite’ clubs from the rest - all behind the backs of football’s governing bodies. In the midst of this, Petr Cech confronted thousands of protesting Chelsea fans outside Stamford Bridge prior to their Tuesday night game and Manchester United announced the departure of executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward. Oh, and 2-time Champions League winner Jose Mourinho was sacked from Tottenham Hotspur.

In terms of football news, there really hasn’t been a week quite like it.

In this article, I will be delving into what the proposal entailed, why it felt like a must for the owners of these football clubs, and where we could go from here.

The Format

In the early afternoon of Sunday the 18th of April, the news of a European Super League began to leak across all of social media. Many football-lovers would have initially dismissed this as mere speculation but, as leading media outlets continued to report on this throughout the afternoon, many began to realise this was more than just a rumour. An incensed Gary Neville summarised the minds of many in the country, labelling the clubs behind the idea as “selfish”, “disgusting” and worthy of punishments - both in terms of fines and points deductions.

But what was it?

To sum up, it was a proposal to create an invitation-only European “competition” founded by 12 of the continent’s 'biggest' clubs. This number would be extended to 15 based on discretionary RSVP invitations, and a further 5 more clubs would be brought in annually based on their success in their domestic leagues. These 20 teams would be split into two groups of 10, and would then compete in midweek fixtures home and away throughout the season. The four best teams in each division (with the fourth being decided in a play-off between the 4th and 5th placed sides) would progress to a traditional knockout stage tournament, ultimately resulting in the ESL final in May.

How these ‘big’ clubs were decided is up for debate, and is something I won’t go into any further in this article. For now I will just accept that, seeing as clubs with as rich histories as Ajax and Benfica weren’t included, they simply cherry-picked those with the largest social media following, and added AC Milan for good measure. Sigh.

The Story

But how did we get here? In order to understand the context behind this, we need to first look at the current format of European football. As the most lucrative competition in Europe, the UEFA Champions League has long been coveted by clubs hoping to make it to the ‘big-time’. The winner of the 2019/20 competition could earn up to €82.4m from just prize money alone, not to mention the incredibly lucrative broadcasting and commercial deals that follow any club that is involved.

Bayern Munich celebrate their 2019/20 Champions League win.

However, the real issue is when you remember that many of the ‘founding’ clubs have not regularly appeared in this elite competition over the last 10 years. Due to their domestic performance in this time, Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United and both Milan sides have been demoted to the second-tier European competition, the UEFA Europa League, on numerous occasions - much to the detriment of their club's wallets. In this competition, the maximum a team can earn - should they win *every* single game in the group stage - is €21.3m. Clubs can earn more than this for just reaching the Last 16 stage of the Champions League.

Stuck in Europa: Manchester United taking on AC Milan in this season’s Europa League.

And so, we come to the European Super League. With Juventus, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs all under threat of not reaching the Champions League for the 2021/22 campaign (and in the case of the last two, Europe as a whole), the clubs seem to have attempted to create their own form of financial guarantee. A 20-team no promotion or relegation league, with entry decided on an invite-only basis by leader Florentino Perez (current Real Madrid president) and his minions in Manchester, Liverpool, London and Turin. No longer would these clubs fear for not qualifying for the Champions League.

The Collapse

Thankfully for supporters of the beautiful game, the emergence of a few cracks in the system soon led to the entire tower of the European Super League falling down. Every English club withdrew from the proposed “competition" on Tuesday evening, with Juventus chairman Andrea Agnelli announcing that the league can no longer continue without these clubs.

Fans can (at least for now) refrain from speculating where the sport goes from here – no draft system like the NFL, no all-star games like the NBA, and no matches taken to Qatar or Vegas like a heavyweight boxing fight.

But this action must not be forgotten. As described by Jonathan Liew in The Guardian (2021), this was a move executed (albeit poorly) by billionaires who hold nothing but hate for the sport. The punishment issued to these clubs and their owner’s remains to be seen, but general consensus indicates that even the loyal supporters of these clubs would sacrifice a year out of European football in order for a precedent to be set against any future misdemeanour. Because with the current ownership, no longer do they consider themselves as mere custodians for the fans - and so future misdemeanour is certain.

New and not-so-improved– The Champions League reform

As a way to satisfy these self-entitled club owners, UEFA have confirmed their new Swiss model for the Champions League – which is set to be implemented in the 2024/25 season. Notably, as part of this new format, the number of teams in the competition will increase from 32 to 36 – thus making room for 4 clubs who, despite not achieving the domestic placing required to be part of the original 32, will ultimately still qualify for the competition based on their UEFA club coefficient.

Aleksander Čeferin, UEFA President, announced the reform of the Champions League on Monday

In practice then, should Manchester United finish 6th in the Premier League, they would still qualify for the Champions League - owing to Sir Alex’s achievements some 20-30 years prior. If West Ham or Everton were to out-perform Manchester United and finish one place above them in the league that same season, they would enter the Europa League.

Confused? Don’t be, this is football now. A sport in which we are forced to cater to the richest clubs of the land in a hope that they don’t throw their toys out the pram and plot a runaway league.

In a scathing attack on the European Super League (ESL) during the past week, Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola (pictured right) lamented that football is not a sport if success is already guaranteed. Whilst the new Champions League format doesn't go to the same extreme as the proposed ESL, it’s not far off.

Thankfully for UEFA, the smoke of the ESL announcement has meant this reform has managed to slip under the radar.

What will they target next?

The ‘big’ clubs want a bigger piece of the pie – and this reformed Champions League won’t be enough. As discussed in the first article I've written on this site, there are three dominant sources of income for football clubs - commercial, matchday and broadcasting.

Looking at these separately, a club’s commercial revenue can only be as good as its executive team, with the balance decided by their ability to sell the club's ‘brand’ to potential sponsors.

In terms of matchday revenue, if their plan is to squeeze even more money out of their fans, good luck to them – they can expect stadium walkouts and protests in return.

Liverpool fans protest rising ticket prices in 2015

Broadcasting revenue on the other hand, has potential. In the current Premier League system, the split of broadcasting revenue is divided relatively fairly across all 20 teams in the division. As demonstrated in the table below (prepared by the tireless Swiss Ramble), 50% of the domestic broadcasting revenue is shared evenly, 25% based on the number of times their games appeared on live television, and the final 25% based on each clubs final league position that season.

Figure 1: The distribution of broadcasting revenue by Premier League clubs in the 2018/19 season (@SwissRamble).

I will be shocked if this level of fairness in distribution is still in place in 10 years’ time. The ‘big’ 6 clubs will fight for their entitled right for more broadcasting revenue – arguing that it is them, not the Brighton, Crystal Palace and Burnley’s of the league, who are responsible for such an incredibly handsome broadcasting deal in the first place.

These clubs will find solace in knowing that at least the domestic deal provides more income based on the number of times they appear on live TV. Looking at Figure 1 again and you can see this does already create some disparity between the 'big' 6 and their competitors.

As it stands however, the 2019-2022 overseas TV deal sees every club in the league receive an equal amount of overseas TV, with any increase in future broadcasting revenue allocated based on merit (final league position). With the ‘big’ 6 having such a great following across Asia, Africa and the Americas (in totality being far greater than anything the other 14 clubs can muster) it will surely not be long until this is split in a far more unbalanced manner. Whether that would be calculated by viewership figures for each game, or even by allowing each of these clubs to sell their rights abroad independently (as rumoured), the ‘big’ 6 will look to get their way.

Steve Parish was right. On Sky’s Monday Night Football, the Crystal Palace chairman stressed that it is important to find solutions to the issues which drove these ‘big’ clubs to such an extreme, and the other 14 clubs of the Premier League will be partly responsible in doing just that. Perhaps a more unfavourable split in overseas broadcasting revenue is the type of compromise that is required to appease these clubs, because as much as we might want to get rid of them entirely after such a heinous act, these ‘brands’ do need to stay in the league.

What would happen to the league’s commercial and broadcasting pull if they weren’t?

Having said this, compromise does go two ways – and *all* football clubs, players, fans and politicians must ensure a plan like the European Super League does not hit the headlines again.

References:

Liew, J. (2021) 'Only someone who truly hates football can be behind a European Super League', Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/18/only-someone-who-truly-hates-football-can-be-behind-a-european-super-league